Uncertainty in Science

Jelly Belly Bean Boozled Challenge

How certain are you that the flavour of the jellybean can be determined by what you see or smell?
These jellybeans look the same? They are the same colour.
They smell the same. 
What happens when you taste them? 
What do you notice?
Do they taste the same or do they taste different?
Can you describe their flavours?
Are you willing to have another go with these jellybeans?

What are the chances that they will taste the same? What are the chances that they will taste different? How certain are you that they are the same?
Are there other ways we could find out whether they taste the same without tasting them?

Uncertainty is a normal part of scientific research. Research goes on because we don’t know everything. Researchers then have to estimate how much of the picture is known and how confident we can all be that their findings tell us what’s happening or what’s going to happen. Scientific understanding is dynamic and can change as we discover new things about a scientific phenomena.

However, society often thinks that scientific uncertainty is a deficiency of scientific research. We often expect certainty in our lives because it makes us feel safe and we that know that something works well.

While scientists feel comfortable with dealing with uncertainty, everyday people see it as a reason to be cynical about scientific research, such as climate change or the prediction of natural disasters.

Uncertainty does not mean we know nothing, and that evidence cannot be trusted, that anything could turn out to be correct or that decisions can not be made.

Are we helping to develop a positive disposition with uncertainty in our students, to think and act like a scientist, to take risks and try something new or different?